Transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 to healthcare workers -observational results of a primary care hospital contact tracing.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 epidemic is evolving rapidly. Healthcare workers are at increased risk for infection, and specific requirements for their protection are advisable to ensure the functioning of the basic healthcare system, including the availability of general practitioners (GPs). Understanding the transmission risk is particularly important for guiding evidence-based protective measures in the primary healthcare setting. METHODS: Healthcare worker contacts of an initially undiagnosed COVID-19 case, who were without personal protective equipment, in particular not wearing facemasks, were screened with nasopharyngeal swabs and polymerase chain reaction tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), irrespective of respiratory symptoms or fever seven days after initial contact. The details of exposure to the index case were obtained during routine contact investigation after unintentional pathogen exposure. RESULTS: Twenty-one healthcare workers reported contacts with the index case. Three healthcare workers reported respiratory symptoms (cough) or low-grade fever within 4 days. None of them tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of symptom onset. All 21 healthcare workers tested SARS-CoV-2 negative 7 days after initial index case contact, including the three healthcare workers with previous symptoms. Ten of the 21 healthcare workers reported a cumulative exposure time of >15 minutes. Longer cumulative contact times were associated with more individual contacts, reduced contact time per contact and activities with physical patient contact. The closest relative of the index patient tested SARS-CoV-2 positive 2 days after the index case presented at the hospital emergency department. CONCLUSION: We found a low risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a primary care setting. These findings are compatible with previous reports of the highest transmission probability in household settings with prolonged close contacts. The current protective measures for healthcare workers, including strict adherence to basic standard hygiene and facemasks, offer considerable protection during short periods of contact with symptomatic COVID-19 cases by diminishing the risk of direct and indirect transmission.

Changes in Diagnostic and Demographic Characteristics of Patients Seeking Mental Health Care During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic in a Large, Community-Based Health Care System.

OBJECTIVE: The early COVID-19 pandemic resulted in great psychosocial disruption and stress, raising speculation that psychiatric disorders may worsen. This study aimed to identify patients vulnerable to worsening mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This retrospective observational study used electronic health records from March 9 to May 31 in 2019 (n = 94,720) and 2020 (n = 94,589) in a large, community-based health care system. Percent change analysis compared variables standardized to the average patient population for the respective time periods. RESULTS: Compared to 2019, psychiatric visits increased significantly (P < .0001) in 2020, with the majority being telephone/video-based (+264%). Psychiatric care volume increased overall (7%), with the greatest increases in addiction (+42%), behavioral health in primary care (+17%), and adult psychiatry (+5%) clinics. While patients seeking care with preexisting psychiatric diagnoses were mainly stable (−2%), new patients declined (−42%). Visits for substance use (+51%), adjustment (+15%), anxiety (+12%), bipolar (+9%), and psychotic (+6%) disorder diagnoses, and for patients aged 18­25 years (+4%) and 26­39 years (+4%), increased. Child/adolescent and older adult patient visits decreased (−22.7% and −5.5%, respectively), and fewer patients identifying as White (−3.8%) or male (−5.0) or with depression (−3%) or disorders of childhood (−2%) sought care. CONCLUSIONS: The early COVID-19 pandemic was associated with dramatic changes in psychiatric care facilitated by a rapid telehealth care transition. Patient volume, demographic, and diagnostic changes may reflect comfort with telehealth or navigating the psychiatric care system. These data can inform health system resource management and guide future work examining how care delivery changes impact psychiatric care quality and access.

The effect of primary health care on tuberculosis in a nationwide cohort of 7·3 million Brazilian people: a quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Universal health coverage is one of the WHO End TB Strategy priority interventions and could be achieved-particularly in low-income and middle-income countries-through the expansion of primary health care. We evaluated the effects of one of the largest primary health-care programmes in the world, the Brazilian Family Health Strategy (FHS), on tuberculosis morbidity and mortality using a nationwide cohort of 7·3 million individuals over a 10-year study period. METHODS: We analysed individuals who entered the 100 Million Brazilians Cohort during the period Jan 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2013, and compared residents in municipalities with no FHS coverage with residents in municipalities with full FHS coverage. We used a cohort design with multivariable Poisson regressions, adjusted for all relevant demographic and socioeconomic variables and weighted with inverse probability of treatment weighting, to estimate the effect of FHS on tuberculosis incidence, mortality, cure, and case fatality. We also performed a range of stratifications and sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: FHS exposure was associated with lower tuberculosis incidence (rate ratio [RR] 0·78, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) and mortality (0·72, 0·55-0·94), and was positively associated with tuberculosis cure rates (1·04, 1·00-1·08). FHS was also associated with a decrease in tuberculosis case-fatality rates, although this was not statistically significant (RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·55-1·30). FHS associations were stronger among the poorest individuals for all the tuberculosis indicators. INTERPRETATION: Community-based primary health care could strongly reduce tuberculosis morbidity and mortality and decrease the unequal distribution of the tuberculosis burden in the most vulnerable populations. During the current marked rise in global poverty due to the COVID-19 pandemic, investments in primary health care could help protect against the expected increases in tuberculosis incidence worldwide and contribute to the attainment of the End TB Strategy goals. FUNDING: TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), Wellcome Trust, and Brazilian Ministry of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Paediatric NHS 111 Clinical Assessment Services pilot: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the feasibility and impact of having paediatric clinicians working in the Clinical Assessment Services (CAS) within NHS 111, a national telephone advice service. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Six NHS 111 providers across England with CAS where volunteer paediatric clinicians (doctors and advanced nurse practitioners (ANPs)) worked between May and December 2020. A data reporting framework was used to compare the outcomes of calls taken by paediatric vs non-paediatric clinicians. PATIENTS: Under 16-year-olds prompting calls to NHS 111 over the study period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The disposition (final outcome of calls) taken by paediatric versus non-paediatric clinicians, paediatric clinicians' and patient experience. RESULTS: 70 paediatric clinicians (66 doctors and 4 ANPs) worked flexible shifts in six NHS 111 providers' CAS over the study period: 2535 calls for under 16-year-olds were taken by paediatric clinicians and 137 008 by non-paediatric clinicians. Overall, disposition rates differed significantly between the calls taken by paediatric versus (vs) non-paediatric clinicians: 69% vs 43% were advised on self-care only, 13% vs 18% to attend emergency departments (EDs), 13% vs 29% to attend primary care, 1% vs 4% to receive an urgent ambulance call out and 4% vs 6% referred to another health service, respectively. When compared with recent (all age) national whole data sets, the feedback from calls taken by paediatricians noted a greater proportion of patients/carers reporting that their problem was fully resolved (92% vs 27%). CONCLUSIONS: Introducing paediatric specialists into NHS 111 CAS is likely to increase self-care dispositions, and reduce onward referrals to primary care, ED and ambulances. Future work will evaluate the impact of a national paediatric clinical assessment service to which specific case types are streamed.

Innovations, contestations and fragilities of the health system response to COVID-19 in the Gauteng Province of South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Gauteng province, with 26.3% of South Africa's population, is the commercial and industrial powerhouse of the country. During the first epidemic wave in 2020, Gauteng accounted for 32.0% of South Africa's reported COVID-19 cases. AIM: The aim of this study was to describe the health system response to the COVID-19 pandemic during the first epidemic wave in Gauteng province and to explore the perspectives of key informants on the provincial response. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using an adapted Pandemic Emergency Response Conceptual Framework, this was a qualitative case study design consisting of 36 key informant interviews and a document analysis. We used thematic analysis to identify themes and sub-themes from the qualitative data. RESULTS: Our case study found that Gauteng developed an innovative, multi-sectoral and comprehensive provincial COVID-19 response that aimed to address the dual challenge of saving lives and the economy. However, the interviews revealed multiple perspectives, experiences, contestations and contradictions in the pandemic response. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed and amplified the fragilities of existing systems, reflected in the corruption on personal protective equipment, poor data quality and inappropriate decisions on self-standing field hospitals. Rooted in a chronic under-investment and insufficient focus on the health workforce, the response failed to take into account or deal with their fears, and to incorporate strategies for psychosocial support, and safe working environments. The single-minded focus on COVID-19 exacerbated these fragilities, resulting in a de facto health system lockdown and reported collateral damage. The key informants identified missed opportunities to invest in primary health care, partner with communities and to include the private health sector in the pandemic response. CONCLUSION: Gauteng province should build on the innovations of the multi-sectoral response to the COVID-19 pandemic, while addressing the contested areas and health system fragilities.

Healthcare use in 700 000 children and adolescents for six months after covid-19: before and after register based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore whether and for how long use of healthcare services is increased among children and adolescents after covid-19. DESIGN: Before and after register based study. SETTING: General population of Norway. PARTICIPANTS: Norwegians aged 1-19 years (n=706 885) who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 from 1 August 2020 to 1 February 2021 (n=10 279 positive, n=275 859 negative) or not tested (n=420 747) and were not admitted to hospital, by age groups 1-5, 6-15, and 16-19 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Monthly percentages of all cause and cause specific healthcare use in primary care (general practitioner, emergency ward) and specialist care (outpatient, inpatient) from six months before to about six months after the week of being tested for SARS-CoV-2, using a difference-in-differences approach. RESULTS: A substantial short term relative increase in primary care use was observed for participants during the first month after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result compared with those who tested negative (age 1-5 years: 339%, 95% confidence interval 308% to 369%; 6-15 years: 471%, 450% to 491%; 16-19 years: 401%, 380% to 422%). Use of primary care for the younger age groups was still increased at two months (1-5 years: 22%, 4% to 40%; 6-15 years: 14%, 2% to 26%) and three months (1-5 years: 26%, 7% to 46%, 6-15 years: 15%, 3% to 28%), but not for the oldest group (16-19 years: 11%, -2% to 24% and 6%, -7% to 19%, respectively). Children aged 1-5 years who tested positive also showed a minor long term (≤6 months) relative increase in primary care use (13%, -0% to 26%) that was not observed for the older age groups, compared with same aged children who tested negative. Results were similar yet the age differences less pronounced compared with untested controls. For all age groups, the increase in primary care visits was due to respiratory and general or unspecified conditions. No increased use of specialist care was observed. CONCLUSION: Covid-19 among children and adolescents was found to have limited impact on healthcare services in Norway. Preschool aged children might take longer to recover (3-6 months) than primary or secondary school students (1-3 months), usually because of respiratory conditions.

Pediatric primary care in Ontario and Manitoba after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There were large disruptions to health care services after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to describe the extent to which pandemic-related changes in service delivery and access affected use of primary care for children overall and by equity strata in the 9 months after pandemic onset in Manitoba and Ontario. METHODS: We performed a population-based study of children aged 17 years or less with provincial health insurance in Ontario or Manitoba before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Jan. 1, 2017-Nov. 28, 2020). We calculated the weekly rates of in-person and virtual primary care well-child and sick visits, overall and by age group, neighbourhood material deprivation level, rurality and immigrant status, and assessed changes in visit rates after COVID-19 restrictions were imposed compared to expected baseline rates calculated for the 3 years before pandemic onset. RESULTS: Among almost 3 million children in Ontario and more than 300 000 children in Manitoba, primary care visit rates declined to 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.82) of expected in Ontario and 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.84) of expected in Manitoba in the 9 months after the onset of the pandemic. Virtual visits accounted for 53% and 29% of visits in Ontario and Manitoba, respectively. The largest monthly decreases in visits occurred in April 2020. Although visit rates increased slowly after April 2020, they had not returned to prerestriction levels by November 2020 in either province. Children aged more than 1 year to 12 years experienced the greatest decrease in visits, especially for well-child care. Compared to prepandemic levels, visit rates were lowest among rural Manitobans, urban Ontarians and Ontarians in low-income neighbourhoods. INTERPRETATION: During the study period, the pandemic contributed to rapid, immediate and inequitable decreases in primary care use, with some recovery and a substantial shift to virtual care. Postpandemic planning must consider the need for catch-up visits, and the long-term impacts warrant further study.

The imperious need for telemedicine for the care of diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic. A comprehensive approach study.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with diabetes experience difficulties to maintain glycemic control during the confinement due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the risk of developing diabetes chronic complications and severe COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the conversion of an outpatient diabetes primary care center from a face-to-face care modality to a telemedicine care service by telephone. METHODS: Medical consultations were made by telephone during the initial phase of confinement (April to June 2020), to then continue the follow-up of patients admitted to a multicomponent diabetes care program. RESULTS: A total of 1,118 consultations were made by telephone and follow-up was subsequently continued in 192 patients with type 2 diabetes. Different professionals from different health areas participated, including medical care, diabetes education, nutrition, psychology and podiatry. CONCLUSIONS: Multicomponent diabetes care was successfully transformed from a face-to-face care modality to a telemedicine service. Many primary care patients may be candidates for telemedicine. A redesign of the care model that incorporates telemedicine should be considered to mitigate chronic diseases burden of morbidity and mortality imposed by COVID-19 pandemic, but also for the post-COVID-19 era.

INTRODUCCIÓN: Los pacientes con diabetes experimentan dificultades para mantener el control glucémico durante el confinamiento por la pandemia de COVID-19, con el riesgo de presentar complicaciones crónicas de la diabetes y COVID-19 grave. OBJETIVO: El propósito de este estudio fue evaluar la conversión de un centro de atención primaria presencial de diabetes a un servicio de telemedicina por llamada telefónica. MÉTODOS: Se realizaron consultas médicas por llamada telefónica durante la etapa inicial del confinamiento (abril a junio de 2020), para continuar el seguimiento de pacientes ingresados a un programa de atención multicomponente en diabetes. RESULTADOS: Se realizaron 1118 consultas por llamada telefónica para continuar el seguimiento de 192 pacientes con diabetes tipo 2. Participaron diferentes profesionales de distintas áreas de la salud: atención médica, educación en diabetes, nutrición, psicología y podología. CONCLUSIONES: La atención multicomponente en diabetes se transformó con éxito de un esquema de atención presencial a un servicio de telemedicina. Numerosos pacientes de atención primaria pueden ser candidatos a telemedicina. Se debe considerar un rediseño del modelo de atención que incorpore la telemedicina para mitigar la carga de morbimortalidad en enfermedades crónicas impuesta por la pandemia de COVID-19, pero también para la era pos-COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia follow-up and long COVID in primary care: A retrospective observational study in Madrid city.

BACKGROUND: Patients with COVID-19 are follow-up in primary care and long COVID is scarcely defined. The study aim was to describe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and cut-offs for defining long COVID in primary care follow-up patients. METHODS: A retrospective observational study in primary care in Madrid, Spain, was conducted. Data was collected during 6 months (April to September) in 2020, during COVID-19 first wave, from patients ≥ 18 years with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia diagnosed. Variables: sociodemographic, comorbidities, COVID-19 symptoms and complications, laboratory test and chest X-ray. Descriptive statistics were used, mean (standard deviation (SD)) and medians (interquartile range (IQR)) respectively. Differences were detected applying X2 test, Student's T-test, ANOVA, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney or Kruskal-Wallis depending on variable characteristics. RESULTS: 155 patients presented pneumonia in day 7.8 from the onset (79.4% were hospitalized, median length of 7.0 days (IQR: 3.0, 13.0)). After discharge, the follow-up lasted 54.0 median days (IQR 42.0, 88.0) and 12.2 mean (SD 6.4) phone calls were registered per patient. The main symptoms and their duration were: cough (41.9%, 12 days), dyspnoea (31.0%, 15 days), asthenia (26.5%, 21 days). Different cut-off points were applied for long COVID and week 4 was considered the best milestone (28.3% of the sample still had symptoms after week 4) versus week 12 (8.3%). Patients who still had symptoms >4 weeks follow-up took place over 81.0 days (IQR: 50.5, 103.0), their symptoms were more prevalent and lasted longer than those ≤ 4 weeks: cough (63.6% 30 days), dyspnoea (54.6%, 46 days), and asthenia (56.8%, 29 days). Embolism was more frequent in patients who still had symptoms >4 weeks than those with symptoms ≤4 weeks (9.1% vs 1.8%, p value 0.034). CONCLUSION: Most patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia recovered during the first 4 weeks from the beginning of the infection. The cut-off point to define long COVID, as persisting symptoms, should be between 4 to 12 weeks from the onset of the symptoms.

Association between role conflict and ambiguity and stress among nurses in primary health care centers in Saudi Arabia during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A cross-sectional study.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to assess the association between role conflict and ambiguity among nurses in primary healthcare centers (PHCs) in Saudi Arabia and their stress levels during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.In this online cross-sectional study, sociodemographic and occupational characteristics, role conflict, and ambiguity of 432 nurses were assessed using the Bowling Scale for Role Conflict and Ambiguity and stress was assessed using the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale from September 27 to October 17, 2020. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for above-median stress levels of nurses with average and high (2nd and 3rd tertiles) role conflict and ambiguity compared with nurses with low role conflict and ambiguity (1st tertile).The mean (standard deviation) age of the nurses was 36.5 ±â€Š6.6 years, and 25.9% of them were males. After adjusting for PHC type and working hours, nurses with average and high role conflict had significantly higher stress rates than those with low role conflict, with ORs (95% CIs) of 2.69 (1.62-4.46) and 6.31 (3.78-10.53), respectively. Similarly, nurses with average- and high-role ambiguity had significantly higher stress than those with low role ambiguity, with ORs (95% CIs) of 2.15 (1.30-3.55) and 7.68 (4.54-13.01), respectively. Increasing stress rates were detected across increasing categories of role conflict and ambiguity (P values for trend <.001).We found that role conflict and ambiguity were associated with stress among nurses in PHCs in Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Telehealth in Primary Healthcare: A Portrait of its Rapid Implementation during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: This study documents the adoption of telehealth by various types of primary healthcare (PHC) providers working in teaching PHC clinics in Quebec during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also identifies the perceived advantages and disadvantages of telehealth. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was conducted between May and August 2020. The e-survey was completed by 48/50 teaching primary care clinics representing 603/1,357 (44%) PHC providers. RESULTS: Telephone use increased the most, becoming the principal virtual modality of consultation, during the pandemic. Video consultations increased, with variations by type of PHC provider: between 2% and 16% reported using it "sometimes." The main perceived advantages of telehealth were minimizing the patient's need to travel, improved efficiency and reduction in infection transmission risk. The main disadvantages were the lack of physical exam and difficulties connecting with some patients. CONCLUSION: The variation in telehealth adoption by type of PHC provider may inform strategies to maximize the potential of telehealth and help create guidelines for its use in more normal times.

Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Preparation and Response on Essential Health Services in Primary and Tertiary Healthcare Settings of Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Countries like Ethiopia have had to make difficult decisions to balance between the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic and maintaining the essential health service delivery. We assessed the effect of preventive COVID-19 measures on essential healthcare services in selected health facilities of Ethiopia. In a comparative cross-sectional study, we analyzed and compared data from seven health facilities over two periods: the pre-COVID-19 period before the first reported COVID-19 case in the country and during the COVID-19 period. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics and the independent t test. During the COVID-19 period the average number of monthly patient visits in the emergency department, pediatrics outpatient, and adult outpatient dropped by 27%, 30%, and 27%, respectively compared with the pre-COVID-19 period. Family planning; institutional delivery; childhood immunization; antenatal care-, hypertension- and diabetic patient follow-up, did not vary significantly between pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19. Moreover, the monthly average number of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV patients who visited health facilities for drug refill and clinical evaluation did not vary significantly during the two periods. In conclusion, the study highlights that the effect of public restrictions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic on essential care systems should be considered.

Are We Reaching Everyone? A Cross-Sectional Study of Telehealth Inequity in the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Urban Academic Pediatric Primary Care Clinic.

The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic brought rapid expansion of pediatric telehealth to maintain patient access to care while decreasing COVID-19 community spread. We designed a retrospective, serial, cross-sectional study to investigate if telehealth implementation at an academic pediatric practice led to disparities in health care access. Significant differences were found in pre-COVID-19 versus during COVID-19 patient demographics. Patients seen during COVID-19 were more likely to be younger, White/Caucasian or Asian, English speaking, and have private insurance. They were less likely to be Black/African American or Latinx and request interpreters. Age was the only significant difference in patient demographics between in-person and telehealth visits during COVID-19. A multivariate regression showed older age as a significant positive predictor of having a video visit and public insurance as a significant negative predictor. Our study demonstrates telehealth disparities based on insurance existed at our clinic as did inequities in who was seen before versus during COVID-19.

Early Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Telehealth Patterns in Primary Care, Mental Health, and Specialty Care Facilities in Texas.

OBJECTIVES: Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many US clinics have shifted some or all of their practice from in-person to virtual visits. In this study, we assessed the use of telehealth among primary care and specialty clinics, by targeting healthcare administrators via multiple channels. METHODS: Using an online survey, we assessed the use of, barriers to, and reimbursement for telehealth. Respondents included clinic administrators (chief executive officers, vice presidents, directors, and senior-level managers). RESULTS: A total of 85 complete responses were recorded, 79% of which represented solo or group practices and 63% reported a daily patient census >50. The proportion of clinics that delivered ≥50% of their consults using telehealth increased from 16% in March to 42% in April, 35% in May, and 30% in June. Clinics identified problems with telehealth reimbursement; although 63% of clinics reported that ≥75% of their telehealth consults were reimbursed, only 51% indicated that ≥75% of their telehealth visits were reimbursed at par with in-person office visits. Sixty-five percent of clinics reported having basic or foundational telehealth services, whereas only 9% of clinics reported advanced telehealth maturity. Value-based care participating clinics were more likely to report advanced telehealth services (27%), compared with non-value-based care clinics (3%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the adaptability of clinics to quickly transition and adopt telehealth. Uncertainty about reimbursement and policy changes may make the shift temporal, however.

[Analysis of the demand for detection of SARSCoV-2 in a health area of Spain]. / Análisis de la demanda de detección de SARS-CoV-2 en un área de salud de España.

OBJECTIVE: Since the discovery of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the polymerase chain reaction technique (RT-PCR) has become the fundamental method for diagnosing the disease in its acute phase. The objective is to describe the demand-based series of RT-PCR determinations received at a Microbiology Service at a third-level reference hospital for a health area for three months spanning from the onset of the epidemic by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the total of the RT-PCR requested in the Microbiology Service analyzed from 02/25/2020 to 05/26/2020 (90 days) has been carried out. They have been grouped by epidemiological weeks and by the petitioner service. A descriptive analysis was carried out by age, gender and number of requests for each patient. In the tests carried out, a confidence level of 95% (p <0.05) was considered significant. RESULTS: A total of 27,106 requests was received corresponding to 22,037 patients. Median age 53.7 (RIC 40.9-71.7) years, women: 61.3%. Proportion of patients with any positive RT-PCR: 14%. Of the total requests for RT-PCR, positive 3,710. Week 13 had the highest diagnosis performance (39.0%). The primary care has been the service thar has made the most requests (15,953). Patients with 3 or more RT-PCR: 565, of them, 19 patients had a positive result after previously having a negative one. CONCLUSIONS: Requests have been increasing depending on the evolution of the epidemic. The RT-PCR has a high diagnostic performance in the phases of highest contagiousness and / or transmissibility of the virus.

Impact of COVID-19 on routine primary healthcare services in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and responses by governments, including lockdowns, have had various consequences for lives and livelihoods. South Africa (SA) was one of the countries that implemented severely restrictive lockdowns to reduce transmission and limit the number of patients requiring hospitalisation. These interventions have had mixed consequences for routine health services. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of COVID-19 and restrictions imposed to limit viral transmission on routine health services in SA. METHODS: Data routinely collected via the District Health Information System in 2019 and 2020 were analysed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Access to public health services between March 2020 and December 2020 was limited in all provinces. However, this was not linear, i.e. not all services in all provinces were similarly affected. Services most severely affected were antenatal visits before 20 weeks, access to contraceptives, and HIV and TB testing. The impact on outcomes was also noticeable, with a measurable effect on maternal and neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, including different levels of lockdowns, the limitation of health services, lack of staff as a result of COVID-19 infection, and fear and stigma, resulted in a reduction in access to routine health services. However, the picture varies by type of service, province and district, with some faring worse than others. It is important to ensure that routine services are not significantly affected during future COVID-19 waves. This will require careful planning on the part of service providers and optimal communication with patients and communities.

Temporal trends and forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland using a national real-time patient-level data platform: a statistical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, national-level surveillance platforms with real-time individual person-level data are required to monitor and predict the epidemiological and clinical profile of COVID-19 and inform public health policy. We aimed to create a national dataset of patient-level data in Scotland to identify temporal trends and COVID-19 risk factors, and to develop a novel statistical prediction model to forecast COVID-19-related deaths and hospitalisations during the second wave. METHODS: We established a surveillance platform to monitor COVID-19 temporal trends using person-level primary care data (including age, sex, socioeconomic status, urban or rural residence, care home residence, and clinical risk factors) linked to data on SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests, hospitalisations, and deaths for all individuals resident in Scotland who were registered with a general practice on Feb 23, 2020. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association between clinical risk groups and time to hospitalisation and death. A survival prediction model derived from data from March 1 to June 23, 2020, was created to forecast hospital admissions and deaths from October to December, 2020. We fitted a generalised additive spline model to daily SARS-CoV-2 cases over the previous 10 weeks and used this to create a 28-day forecast of the number of daily cases. The age and risk group pattern of cases in the previous 3 weeks was then used to select a stratified sample of individuals from our cohort who had not previously tested positive, with future cases in each group sampled from a multinomial distribution. We then used their patient characteristics (including age, sex, comorbidities, and socioeconomic status) to predict their probability of hospitalisation or death. FINDINGS: Our cohort included 5 384 819 people, representing 98·6% of the entire estimated population residing in Scotland during 2020. Hospitalisation and death among those testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 between March 1 and June 23, 2020, were associated with several patient characteristics, including male sex (hospitalisation hazard ratio [HR] 1·47, 95% CI 1·38-1·57; death HR 1·62, 1·49-1·76) and various comorbidities, with the highest hospitalisation HR found for transplantation (4·53, 1·87-10·98) and the highest death HR for myoneural disease (2·33, 1·46-3·71). For those testing positive, there were decreasing temporal trends in hospitalisation and death rates. The proportion of positive tests among older age groups (>40 years) and those with at-risk comorbidities increased during October, 2020. On Nov 10, 2020, the projected number of hospitalisations for Dec 8, 2020 (28 days later) was 90 per day (95% prediction interval 55-125) and the projected number of deaths was 21 per day (12-29). INTERPRETATION: The estimated incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on positive tests recorded in this unique data resource has provided forecasts of hospitalisation and death rates for the whole of Scotland. These findings were used by the Scottish Government to inform their response to reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme, UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK, Scottish Government Director General Health and Social Care.

Paediatric primary care in Germany during the early COVID-19 pandemic: the calm before the storm.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has a major impact on healthcare provision. The effects in primary care are understudied. This study aimed to explore changes in consultation numbers and patient management during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to identify challenges for patient care. DESIGN: Survey of paediatric primary care practices on consultation numbers and patient management changes, and semistructured interviews to identify challenges for patient care. Surveys and interviews were partially linked in an explanatory sequential design to identify patient groups perceived to be at higher risk for worse care during the pandemic. SETTING: In and around Düsseldorf, a densely populated area in Western Germany. The primary care facilities are spread over an area with approximately 2 million inhabitants. PARTICIPANTS: Primary care in Germany is provided through practices run by self-employed specialist physicians that are contracted to offer services to patients under public health insurance which is compulsory to the majority of the population. The sample contained 44 paediatric primary care practices in the area, the response rate was 50%. RESULTS: Numbers of consultations for scheduled developmental examinations remained unchanged compared with the previous year while emergency visits were strongly reduced (mean 87.3 less/week in March-May 2020 compared with 2019, median reduction 55.0%). Children dependent on developmental therapy and with chronic health conditions were identified as patient groups receiving deteriorated care. High patient numbers, including of mildly symptomatic children presenting for health certificates, in combination with increased organisational demands and expected staff outages are priority concerns for the winter. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care paediatricians offered stable service through the early pandemic but expected strained resources for the upcoming winter. Unambiguous guidance on which children should present to primary care and who should be tested would help to allocate resources appropriately, and this guidance needs to consider age group specific issues including high prevalence of respiratory symptoms, dependency on carers and high contact rates.